A statistical study of the possible effects of solar wind variability on the recurrence rate of substorms

first_imgThe recurrence of substorms in the terrestrial magnetosphere depends on many factors. Chief among these are (1) the mechanism(s) by which the magnetosphere stores and rids itself of excess magnetic flux accumulated in the tail (loading-unloading behavior) and (2) the way in which the power input from the solar wind to the magnetosphere (the coupling) varies with time. In this paper we explore the possible effects of the variability of the interplanetary medium on the statistical temporal distribution of substorms, using a simple substorm model. In this model, substorms recur at fixed time intervals in response to a steady solar wind power input, regardless of its level. In our simulations the power input into the magnetosphere is measured by the rectified north-south component, Bs, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We use IMF data at 15-s resolution from long-term surveys to construct three statistical model inputs: (1) the random Bs model, (2) the shortwave Bs model, and (3) the longwave Bs model. We find that all the resultant distributions of intersubstorm intervals are skewed with respect to a clear modal peak and cover a wide range of intersubstorm intervals. We also find that the temporal succession of substorm onsets is sensitive to the ratio of the timescale of IMF variation to the assumed intrinsic intersubstorm period. For small values of this ratio the mode of the distribution can be greater than the intrinsic intersubstorm interval by a factor of 2 or more. For large values of this ratio the modal substorm recurrence rate approaches the intrinsic value. We also assess the effect on the temporal distribution of substorm onsets of random (failure to identify a substorm onset) and quasi-random (incomplete coverage) errors. We use our findings to interpret the results of a large-scale survey of substorm recurrence rates in the terrestial magnetosphere under nonstorm conditions recently undertaken [Borovsky et al., 1993]. Both shortwave and longwave Bs models could provide an interpretation for this empirical distribution but with certain provisos, which are different for the two alternatives. In the shortwave Bs model, allowance would have to be made for about a 45% failure rate in the identification of substorms. In the longwave Bs model the solar wind power input over the >8-month duration of the survey would have to be dominated by intervals, each longer than about 3 hours, when the power input was continuously on or off. Reasons are given for preferring the first of these alternatives. Thus, once the contribution of the variability of the solar wind power input on the substorm recurrence rate has been separated out, this would then show that the empirical distribution is not at variance with the notion that under constant solar wind power input, substorms recur periodicallylast_img read more

Going deeper into the future of financial institutions

first_img 84SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblr,John Hyche At LEVEL5, “Think Strategically, Build Creatively” is not just a tagline, it’s the culture. John Hyche guides the “think strategically” portion of LEVEL5’s services. In this role, John … Web: www.level5.com Details While it’s not yet time for the “year in review” articles, I’ve seen an interesting trend this year in financial publications’ discussion of branches. Some articles decry the end of branches in preference for all things digital or mobile. Others say that branches have their place, but in a different form that the branches of yesteryear. ITMs and universal bankers have been thrown in the mix as well, melding high tech and high touch concepts. In the end, the general tone is that an omni-channel approach is needed, balancing physical, automated, and virtual channels. Online and mobile are essential to be a relevant competitor in today’s environment. Branches become sales and service centers that also establish the institution’s image and presence in its market.So let’s dig a bit deeper. Isn’t one of the goals of most financial institutions to make their customers’ financial lives better? [Something akin to that shows up in most of the mission statements I see.] How is that goal achieved? My theory is that it is best achieved by going deeper. An omni-channel model provides convenience for customers. That’s great, but most competitors offer a similar degree of convenience, so the customer’s life isn’t better simply because he/she has access to their accounts 24/7/365. Pricing? Rates are still very low and competitive, so there isn’t much differentiation based on rate. Personal service? In 30 years of working with financial institutions I’ve never heard one say they have poor personal service. A few will candidly admit they need improvement. Some need to wake up and take a hard look at themselves. But, for the most part, customer service isn’t the compelling differentiator. Further, is my financial life BETTER because of personal service?Most of our financial lives are rather mundane. We have weeks, months, even years of routine transactions. Once in a while our financial lives are punctuated by the big events: marriage, kids, new homes, college, new businesses, expanding businesses, declining businesses, loss of loved ones, unexpected expenses. When these big events occur, many of us are faced with the need to make financial decisions and we may or may not have the information needed to do so.Let’s use a story or two to illustrate the point…TALK RADIOWhile driving around town and listening to talk radio one day I came across a financial program. A listener called in and asked if he/she should get a 15- or a 30-year mortgage. After many words (and a commercial break) the guest host couldn’t answer the question. Why not? Because “it depends.” The talk radio format is insufficient to allow the expert to understand the borrower’s circumstances sufficiently to make an appropriate recommendation. Regardless of the format – in person, virtual, telephone, chat session – financial institutions can only make their customers’ financial lives better by digging deeper and understanding what they’re trying to accomplish. Then they’re positioned to outline the strategy that best supports the customer’s goals.IN THE BRANCHOne day I was interviewing a branch staff and met a customer service representative who clearly understood her purpose. “Give me ten minutes with a customer and his credit report and I’ll save him money,” she declared. She then rattled off the process – refinancing mortgages or second mortgages, refinancing or consolidating car loans, moving credit card balances. With each move she could describe the likely financial benefit for the customer as well as the benefit for the institution. She could make the customer’s financial life better because she knew how to go deeper. She knew what to look for and how to think holistically about the customer’s situation. That has to be the goal, regardless of the interface. Perhaps the sanity check is to ask if our remote and virtual channels are truly up to the challenge. I would dare say that this CSR creates customers for life – the type who will tell their friends about her and her institution.So my point is this: financial institutions can indeed make their customers’ financial lives better, but it requires them to dig deeper into relationships when life’s big events occur. This can occur over any variety of platforms, but it must occur. And as these opportunities present themselves and become success stories, the institution has an even deeper well to draw from in terms of marketing and training.BONUS SECTION: CUSTOMER SERIVCE GONE AWRY – WHAT NOT TO DOI Don’t Know – Lack of front line training risks account relationships.The Ivory Tower – Management’s lack of awareness of branch conditions spells poor service.Come Back Tomorrow – Inability to respond may propel relationships out the door.Hello, There – Sales culture needs a sales environment for optimal success.Know Your Customer – Lack of customer knowledge could lead to lack of customers.last_img read more

AVC: Philippines loses second straight as Korea stays undefeated

first_imgLATEST STORIES End of his agony? SC rules in favor of Espinosa, orders promoter heirs to pay boxing legend Bullock ends Rain or Shine skid in nipping of Kia Albay to send off disaster response team to Batangas Teen gunned down in Masbate READ: Filipinas shrug off first-game jitters vs Hong Kong Yang Hyojin had a game-high 13 points to lead Korea while Kim put up 12 points, going 9-of-12 on her spike attempts.Kim Heejin also had double-digit scoring numbers when she put up 11 points for Korea.Jaja Santiago paced the Philippines with 10 points while Alysa Valdez and Gonzaga combined for 14.Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next Vilma Santos, Luis Manzano warn public of fake account posing as her Marcosian mode: Duterte threatens to arrest water execs ‘one night’ 787 earthquakes recorded in 24 hours due to restive Taal Volcano Hwang Minkyoung assured the Koreans of the victory with an off-the-block kill the Philippine defense had no chance of receiving.READ: AVC: PH yields to unbeaten Kazakhstan, still moves on to QF FEATURED STORIESSPORTSEnd of his agony? SC rules in favor of Espinosa, orders promoter heirs to pay boxing legendSPORTSRedemption is sweet for Ginebra, Scottie ThompsonSPORTSMayweather beats Pacquiao, Canelo for ‘Fighter of the Decade’And though it was Hwang who dealt the final blow, it was Korean superstar Kim Yeon-koung who threw the early haymakers.Kim, who sat out Korea’s first two games and played sparingly in the third, surprised those in attendance when she stepped to the floor when her team squandered a five-point lead late in the first set. Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. MOST READ Photo from asianvolleyball.netBIÑAN, Laguna—The Philippines took another loss in the AVC Asian Senior Women’s Volleyball Championship as Korea handed the host a three-set beating, 25-23, 25-18, 25-12 in the classification stage Sunday at Alonte Sports Arena here.Korea, FIVB’s 10th-ranked team in the world, are 2-0 in the classification stage and has a shot to take a top-four seeding for the quarterfinals while the Philippines dropped to 0-2.ADVERTISEMENT Filipinos turn Taal Volcano ash, plastic trash into bricks PLAY LIST 01:40Filipinos turn Taal Volcano ash, plastic trash into bricks01:32Taal Volcano watch: Island fissures steaming, lake water receding02:14Carpio hits red carpet treatment for China Coast Guard02:56NCRPO pledges to donate P3.5 million to victims of Taal eruption00:56Heavy rain brings some relief in Australia02:37Calm moments allow Taal folks some respite 2 nabbed in Bicol drug stings Ai-Ai delas Alas on Jiro Manio: ‘Sana pinahalagahan niya ang naitulong ko’ Korea had a 24-19 lead when Jovelyn Gonzaga and Aby Maraño combined for four straight points to cut the lead to 24-23.READ: Philippines whips Hong Kong in AVC openerKim then ended the first set with a booming kill for Korea and she did the same in the second set with another power hit to end the penultimate period.“If I were a player and KYK came in, I’d be stunned,” said Philippine head coach Francis Vicente in Filipino. “KYK is one of the world’s best and for me it was an honor that she played that early in the game.”“Still, even though we lost, I’m still proud of them because we put up a fight against one of the best teams in the world and you can see that we can win it’s just that we would falter at the end.”ADVERTISEMENT 787 earthquakes recorded in 24 hours due to restive Taal Volcano View commentslast_img read more

49ers Richard Sherman wants reunion with Earl Thomas

first_imgCLICK HERE if you are having a problem viewing the photos on a mobile deviceSANTA CLARA — Richard Sherman defected from the Seattle Seahawks to the 49ers this past offseason, and he’d like free safety Earl Thomas to do the same in a couple months.“Would I love to play with Earl B. Thomas III? I’d love to, I’d love to have him back in the locker room,” Sherman said Thursday. “But I’m sure he’ll have a plethora of opportunities and I’m sure we’re going to throw our hat in the ring.”Thomas’ …last_img read more

Watery Moon Upsets Conventional Wisdom

first_imgThe moon looks pretty dry.  It may have maria (oceans) but the figurative term would not attract customers for beachfront property: its seas are made of hardened lava.  The moon’s “Ocean of storms” (Mare Procellarum) only gets rain in the form of solar wind and cosmic rays.  Still, could there be water molecules in this dry place?  New studies say yes.  What’s most interesting about this answer is the reaction of some scientists to unexpected information.    In a paper in Nature,1 Saal et al believe they have discovered primordial water in orange and green soil samples returned by Apollo astronauts.  Since the H2O molecules are deeply embedded in crystals, they feel it rules out contamination from earth or condensation from extra-lunar sources.  The concentration of water (their best estimate being 750 parts per million) is much higher than the estimates for the earth’s upper mantle.  The researchers feel it represents magmatic water in the interior of the moon that was buried after volcanic eruptions then became exposed after meteoritic impacts.  They detected, in addition, other volatiles, including sulfur, fluorine, chlorine and carbon dioxide.    So what?  The problem is that the favored theory for the origin of the moon would not permit these volatiles to be present.  Many astronomers feel a Mars-size object impacted the earth early in its history.  The moon condensed out of the ejecta.  This process, however, would not have left much if any water or volatile elements and molecules behind.  Commenting on this paper in the same issue of Nature,2 Mark Chaussidon (CRPG, France) explored the ramifications:These results raise many questions.  Are the volatile contents of the melts that formed the green and orange glasses typical for the Moon?  Can the general scarcity of most volatile elements on the Moon be reconciled with the apparent abundance of sulphur, chlorine, fluorine and especially water in the lunar glasses?  What happened to all the water during the Moon’s formation?  And if the Moon is not bone dry, where did the water come from?He tried to salvage the impact hypothesis by suggesting that maybe earth and the primordial moon exchanged volatile material for a few centuries while the moon coalesced.  Future comparisons of hydrogen-to-deuterium ratios between earth and moon may help resolve the dispute.    EurekAlert reported the story and ended with a surprising comment about scientific discovery in general:Lead author of the study, Alberto Saal of Brown University remarked: “Beyond the evidence for the presence of water in the interior of the Moon, which I found extremely exciting, I learned that the contributions from scientists from other disciplines has the potential to produce unexpected results.  Such a scientist is able not only to ask questions that no one has asked before, but also can challenge hypotheses that are embedded in the thinking of the scientists working in the field for many years.  Our case is a typical example.  When I suggested we measure volatiles in lunar material, everyone I talked to thought that such proposal was a futile endeavor.  We ‘knew’ the Moon was dry.”Astrobiology Magazine also reported the story and included the above quote.  It also included artwork of the Mars-impact hypothesis.  The BBC News also reported the story.  It should be recalled from the 11/04/2002 entry that Apollo astronaut and geologist Harrison Schmidt (Apollo 17), who discovered the orange soil on the moon, denies the Mars-impact hypothesis.1.  Saal et al, “Volatile content of lunar volcanic glasses and the presence of water in the Moon’s interior,” Nature 454, 192-195 (10 July 2008) | doi:10.1038/nature07047.2.  Mark Chaussidon, “Planetary science: The early Moon was rich in water,” Nature 454, 170-172 (10 July 2008) | doi:10.1038/454170a.How can science progress if scientists don’t ask the right questions?  Looking for water on the moon was futile.  They “knew” the moon was dry.  If you think science is always an unbiased collection of evidence, think about this case.  Scientists always approach a problem with a bias.  No one collects data in a strict Baconian fashion.  There is always an element of human selection, deciding what questions are interesting, and what data are most likely to yield fruitful hypotheses.  Thank goodness for a few individuals who bravely ask the questions others don’t consider worthwhile.  If the finding holds up, a lot of artwork and computer animations may get tossed out the window.  Another problem will resurface: where did our moon come from?  The Mars impact hypothesis was the leading theory for a long time, not because the data demanded it, but because the other contenders were each losers (see best-in-field fallacy).  But consider what was said in the previous entry about our privileged planet: the moon has a function.  It’s very probable that without our specific moon, its mass and distance, life could not exist.  Then there is the amazing coincidence about solar eclipses: the moon’s apparent diameter in the sky is the same as the sun’s.  Too many coincidences and the chance hypothesis sounds uncannily lucky.  Maybe the moon was created.(Visited 15 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0last_img read more

Sometimes You Have to Stand Alone

first_img Get the Free eBook! Want to master cold calling? Download my free eBook! Many would have you believe that cold calling is dead, but the successful have no fear of the phone; they use it to outproduce their competitors. Download Now There will be times that you have to stand up for what is right, and doing so means you will have to stand alone. Stand anyway.Sometimes standing up for yourself means that you will have to stand alone, too. No matter much how much it feels like you need someone to stand with you, no matter how afraid you may be, stand alone, come what may.It’s never easy to stand alone, but there will times when you have to stand alone to protect those who cannot stand for themselves.No matter what people think of you, no matter what they say about you behind your back, and even if you become the target of their fears (and bullying, anger, resentment, and all other forms of violence are all a form of fear at their core), stand alone anyway.You will never regret standing up for what is right, for what you believe, or for those who can’t stand for themselves. Real character is a rare commodity, and is worth whatever price you pay.But know this: those who stand alone often turn around to find that there are many standing behind them.last_img read more